By Daniel Beckelman

A Very Cold Winter and a Spring Thaw

2007 started out as coldly for the Bergen County Republicans as the traditional winter in North Jersey.  Faced with their first shut-out from the Freeholder Board in recent memory and increasing losses of local governments which has began in the late 1990’s once County Democratic leader Joe Ferriero built up his party’s machine. The national political climate was also toxic, with Republicans losing Congress and President Bush presiding increasingly uneasily in the White House. County Republicans were also nearing bankruptcy, as the loss of seats and an ethical fundamentalism among elite Republicans had shifted donations to Democrats.  The phone line at the organization’s mammoth Hackensack headquarters were temporarily shut-off It looked as though Bergen, once dominated by the GOP, would become a one-party county, much like Democratic Essex and Hudson. Guy Talarico’s quote of making the county GOP “more like the national party,” seemed unwise in a moderate county where voters felt increasingly comfortable with non-controversial Democrats like County Executive Dennis McNerney and Sheriff Leo McGuire and increasingly uncomfortable with George W. Bush and Tom DeLay.

To stop the slide, both the organization and individuals took steps to re-focus positive energy. Joe Caruso founded the group Red Faction to rally Republicans and engage one-time Reagan Democrats in the county’s southern tier. Talarico and Caruso brought in Rudy Giuliani, one of the few Republicans still popular in the County, to raise $100,000 for the county party.

This spurred a real battle. When longtime State Senator Hank McNamara announced retirement, most assumed that Assemblyman Kevin O’Toole was the natural successor. Talarico had other ideas. Under the guise of wanting to keep the seat for Bergen County, the chair tapped frequent candidate Todd Caliguire, as well as conservative activist John Ginty and Wayne Councilman Joseph Schweingardt to run an opposing slate to O’Toole and his running-mates, longtime Assemblyman David Russo and Wayne Mayor Scott Rumana. O’Toole countered by running his own off-the-line Freeholder candidates in Bergen, and getting practically the whole local establishment except Talarico behind them. With the Essex and Passaic GOP Chairs running on the same slate, and even Steve Lonegan backing O’Toole, it was clear from the outset that Talarico had made a self-defeating political blunder. This was highlighted more when it seemed that District 38 might be competitive with the meltdown of Senator Joseph Coniglio over a federal ethics inquiry.

On primary day, O’Toole won 54-40%, though in Bergen Caliguire was surprisingly strong. The next day, Talarico resigned, creating a wide-open race for County Chair.

Ortiz’s Rise to Power

After centrist elected officials such as Ed Trawinski and Lisa Randall passed on the race, moderates eager to retake the party rallied behind Ridgewood fundraiser and then-attorney Rob Ortiz. Young, Latino and from outside the state, Ortiz seemed to be everything Talarico was not, and thus was seen as a leader to re-orient the County GOP. After a “draft” movement was begun with a clever website, Ortiz got in and faced Ben Focarino, a longtime party activist from Garfield and Christian Coalition leader Bill Thomson, who seemed to not campaign. Focarino campaigned aggressively, and some resented Ortiz’s closeness with NJGOP chair Tom Wilson, who threw his weight behind Ortiz’s bid. With the establishment figures like Kevin O’Toole and former County GOP Chair John Inganamort behind him, Ortiz appeared to be the favorite, and in an old-style chair’s election at the BCRO headquarters complete with hot-dog carts, Ortiz won 59% of the vote.

Ortiz faced challenges as he assumed the mantle of the Republican leader in the state’s largest county. Candidates for various offices, particularly State Senate in the potentially competitive 36th and 38th Districts were disappointing GOP insiders and many suggested replacements before the September switch deadline. Some on the party’s right flank remained bitter, while others feared Ortiz would sell out the BCRO to Rudy Giuliani and wealthy US Senate candidate Anne Estabrook. Relations with the county freeholder candidates became icy, as Ortiz reasserted dominance over the organization but did not heavily fund the freeholder race despite the low-turnout year, which was expected to help Republicans. Moreover, some have said that the new chairman cut his circle of advisors, which rubbed some loyal Bergen Republicans the wrong way.

Mixed Results Based on a New Strategy

The new chair focused on a “bottom-up” strategy, thus re-taking towns that were Democratic but teetering and electing Republicans who could move up to the Freeholder Board and State Legislature. While this worked in Elmwood Park, Hasbrouck Heights and Rutherford, some inside sources believe that Ortiz’s lack of funding for an absentee voter drive hurt efforts to gain more local seats. The GOP also failed to capture critical seats in Fair Lawn and Paramus, and remained shut out of county government. After Bob Gordon replaced Joe Coniglio as the Democratic candidate in District 38, all hope of retaking the seat faded. Some believe Ortiz did not push enough for clean elections donations in the 37th District and missed an opportunity to elect at least one Assembly member in the 36th, considering the races were closer there and GOP victories in several of the district’s towns.

Still many believe the Chair’s strategy was the right one. “It’s such an improvement from the past, and we made significant progress in local races,” notes Fair Lawn Councilman Ed Trawinski, “you cannot do it all in one year.”

But can Ortiz do it next year? It being, of course, bringing back a Republican voice to the Freeholder Board when three seats are up for grabs (thanks to Democrat Connie Wagner moving to the Assembly). Expectations will be high on the Republican side whether Democrats are running a slate of new candidates or if they retain incumbents David Ganz and Bernadette McPherson, both of whom were ousted from Mayor’s seats in their normally Democrat-favoring towns. Ortiz also needs to defend the County Clerk’s seat and bring out Republicans to vote for the United States Senate and President.

2008: A Foggy Crystal Ball

The two top-ticket races will indeed prove to be maze a maze for the GOP to navigate. Ortiz’s unequivocal support for Rudy Giuliani seemed smart in the summer, but the former New York City Mayor’s increasing skids on the road to the presidency have had many question whether the chair bet wrong or should not have betted at all. If Giuliani does not show strength before February 5th, it is possible Mitt Romney or John McCain could do well in the primary in Bergen County. The intra-party contest might also be an issue in the United States Senate race if there is backing among the local GOP faithful for libertarian Murray Sabrin or conservative Joe Pennachio against the Chair’s preferred candidate, wealthy moderate Anne Estabrook. Like in previous years, a battle for the top of the ticket could create rival slates of Freeholder candidates, drying out the coffers for a battle with the Democrats. An inside Republican source indeed speculates that the BCRO has basically been sold on the auction block to Estabrook despite a lack of substantial donations from the Senate hopeful.

Ortiz also must perform early. He is up for re-election in June, and already has drawn threats of a challenge from Bob Yudin and speculation of others jumping in. The Chair who was elected to bring the Bergen Republicans back to health and be a consistent leader needs to unify the party behind solid candidates and ramp up fundraising after an underwhelming start. Otherwise, the Chair’s well-known plans to move to the state level after a strong record in Bergen may be challenged or ended early.

In the general, Ortiz also will face some obstacles. The national dynamic would suggest a Democratic victory in New Jersey and Bergen County, but the surprising weakness of Democratic presidential contenders in some general election match-ups makes this uncertain. Certainly Giuliani, Romney, or McCain would be somewhat competitive in Bergen, with only cultural rightist and economic populist Mike Huckabee not attracting many votes here in the suburban Manhattan of designer brands and resistance to religious extremism. Either way, it will not be a 1980 or 1984-style coattail from the Presidential ticket for the Republicans when Ronald Reagan swept the county and helped pull in numerous Republicans.

In the Senate race, any Democrat would be favored in Bergen, and certainly if Steve Rothman replaced Frank Lautenberg in the race it would further help the Democratic ticket. However, Republicans Murray Sabrin or Anne Estabrook could attract a high enough share of moderate independents to not make it a blow out, but the Democrats have an upper hand. If Rothman remains in the House (barring a promotion to the Senate), he will also assist the Democratic ticket in the county’s south. In the north, no strong candidate has emerged to take on Scott Garrett and he may well perform better than in 2006. Most of the county is in Rothman’s district, another Democratic edge. Still, Ortiz must get out the GOP vote, even in Democratic strongholds, to help his county slate.

These races and internal machinations will impact the county and local races. Even with sub-par Democratic freeholder choices (which is not a safe bet if Ferriero recruits popular Democratic Mayors like Dumont’s Matt McHale to run), the Chair still must defend Kathe Donovan’s Clerk seat whether she runs or becomes a judge. This is key as not only is it the last constitutional office but the last point of patronage in the old Republican machine, a key point a Democratic source related as far back as 2004 as rationale for Ferriero’s planned all-out on the Clerk’s office next year. If Freeholder Liz Calabrese runs, she would have to be at least even with Donovan and favored against a new Republican to take the seat.

Most challenging will be making a compelling argument for the GOP’s return to the halls of power in Hackensack. The Democrats have governed in the center and the county tax rate is the lowest in New Jersey. Pay-to-play and other ethical intrigues seem to be non-starters as attack lines for the GOP. Only desire for change or a true issue of purpose might excite independents to swing back to the Republican column.

2007 heralded the changing of the guard at the BCRO, not only in Ortiz taking over for Talarico but in a revival in spirit after years of nearly constant despair. However, the new Chair and the party as a whole will have to work extra hard to make progress in 2008 in the face of political uncertainty at the national and state level.